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2018-07-30   Signal: The current cyclical economic upturn in the EU is not being used to improve the underlying budgetary position

The European Union's independent fiscal institutions warn that the current cyclical economic upturn is not being used to improve the structural budget balance. This conclusion is presented in the joint publication by these institutions in the edition of the European Fiscal Monitor. It states that despite the prospects for sustainable economic growth expected in the coming years, significant internal and external vulnerabilities associated with high levels of private debt and threats of a deterioration in global trade are the main source of downside risk to the outlook.

National Audit Office performing the functions of the independent fiscal institution in Lithuania since 2015, states in its insights that the growth of Lithuania's economy in 2018 will remain balanced, and similarly affected by internal and external demand.

“We point out that that the nominal general government surplus achieved in recent years has been determined by one-off and non-permanent factors. It is expected that the fiscal policy of Lithuania in 2018 will maintain the pro-cyclical stance. This means that no development of the fiscal space took and has been taking place during good times to ensure the possibility of counter-cyclical expansion during a downturn,” said Saulė Skripkauskienė, Senior Adviser of the Budget Policy Monitoring Department.

The European Fiscal Monitor is the initiative of the network bringing together independent fiscal institutions in EU. By their assessments, these institutions contribute to the discussions taking place in an EU and global context on fiscal developments in individual EU member states.

The European Fiscal Monitor is published simultaneously by the 24 independent national fiscal monitoring bodies from the EU. The overview is produced by the Network’s Secretariat in collaboration with the Centre for Applied Macro-finance at the University of York (United Kingdom). The Monitor is published twice a year, in January and July.

The Monitor in Lithuanian can be found on the website of the Lithuanian fiscal institution.
 
For comments:
Saulė Skripkauskienė, Senior Adviser of the Budget Policy Monitoring Department, tel.  (8 5) 204 7646, e-mail saule.skripkauskiene@ifi.lt

 

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