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01/04/2015   National Audit Office approved the economic development scenario for 2015–2018

The National Audit Office has carried out an assessment of the economic development scenario for 2015–2018 prepared and published by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Lithuania and presented its opinion to the Seimas concerning the approval of the scenario. According to the Ministry of Finance, the economic growth of Lithuania, although slower that it was forecasted last autumn, will still remain one of the fastest in the European Union and in the euro area, with 2.5 per cent. In the opinion of the National Audit Office, the scenario prepared by the Ministry results from the assumptions chosen and identified, it is based on the existing statistical data and does not contradict the patterns of the economy.

No optimistic forecasting trends were identified in an analysis of errors of the macroeconomic projections for 2006-2014 published by the Ministry of Finance. The errors estimated during the analysis period confirm that the indicator projections were realistic or conservative. However, overestimation of final domestic demand and conservative projections of the impact of net exports were found in certain years. At present, the Ministry of Finance is the only forecasting authority of the ones selected for the assessment which has projected a significant negative contribution of net exports and a stronger impact of domestic demand on the growth of real gross domestic product. The overestimation of the development of domestic demand will lead to higher tax revenue projections in draft budgets.

The National Audit Office noted that the current regulatory legislation does not provide for the procedure for preparing an economic development scenario and the periodicity of its preparation; also, no methodology for producing macroeconomic forecasts has been drawn up and published, including models used for the forecasting, assumptions, and external risk factors.

 

Responsible for the information Communication Division
Last updated on 25 May 2015

National Audit Office of Lithuania

Pamėnkalnio St 27, LT-01113 Vilnius, Phone: + 370 5 266 6793, + 370 5 266 6752, Email: nao@vkontrole.lt.