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21/09/2016   The National Audit Office endorses the economic development scenario for 2016–2019

In implementing the functions of the budget policy monitoring institution, the National Audit Office (hereinafter the Fiscal Institution) finalised an assessment of the 2016–2019 economic development scenario prepared and announced by the Ministry of Finance on the 12th of September, and submitted an opinion to the parliament (Seimas) regarding its endorsement.

The opinion revealed that the economic development scenario prepared by the Ministry of Finance results from the chosen and identified assumptions, is based on the recent available statistical data and does not contradict economic regularities, thereby allowing the Fiscal Institution to endorse it.

Following the endorsed 2016–2019 economic development scenario, household consumption remains the key driver of the economic development. Beneficial environment in the labour market and low marginal propensity to save the permanent labour income encourage households to increase the current consumption. On the other hand, sluggish savings, decreased investment activities as well as limited export capacity weaken the medium-term outlook of the Lithuanian economic development, implying negative medium-term revision of the real GDP growth projections.

The economic development scenario produced by the Ministry of Finance takes into account an increased economic and geopolitical uncertainty. While announcing the projections for Lithuania, international institutions are also likely to consider the same changes in the external environment, so their projections are expected to be similar to those announced by the Ministry of Finance.

The Fiscal Institution accepted the risk factors identified by the Ministry of Finance and the fact that their management requires immediate implementation of structural reforms as well as securing favourable investment environment.

The opinion provides a semi-annual review of economic development in 2016, an analysis of macro-economic indicators and risk factors behind the endorsement decision, and an assessment of the demand and supply factors for the export of products and services.

 

Responsible for the information Communication Division
Last updated on 18 November 2016

National Audit Office of Lithuania

Pamėnkalnio St 27, LT-01113 Vilnius, Phone: + 370 5 266 6793, + 370 5 266 6752, Email: nao@vkontrole.lt.